Severe Droughts in Syria, Iraq, and Iran Linked to Human-Caused Climate Change
A recent study done by the World Weather Attribution group highlights the profound impact of human-caused global heating on extreme droughts in Syria, Iraq, and Iran since 2020. This research concludes that these devastating droughts, which have negatively affected millions of lives, would not have occurred without the influence of climate change. The analysis reveals that the climate crisis has made long-lasting and severe droughts more common. In the Tigris-Euphrates basin, which encompasses significant portions of Syria and Iraq, droughts of this severity used to occur approximately once every 250 years. However, in today's warmer world, they now happen once a decade. Similarly, in Iran, extreme droughts that used to take place once every 80 years now strike every five years due to the hotter climate. The study warns that further global heating, primarily driven by the burning of fossil fuels, will exacerbate the frequency of such droughts. Moreover, the study emphasizes that the existing vulnerability resulting from years of war and political instability in the region has significantly reduced people's ability to cope with these droughts, ultimately turning them into humanitarian disasters. The researchers stress the importance of planning for more frequent droughts in the future. Professor Mohammad Rahimi from Semnan University in Iran noted, “Our study has shown that human-caused climate change is already making life considerably harder for tens of millions of people in West Asia. And with further warming, Syria, Iraq, and Iran will become even harsher places to live." Rana El Hajj from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center emphasized the interplay between conflict and climate change, stating, "While conflict itself increases vulnerability to drought by contributing to land degradation, weakened water management, and deteriorating infrastructure, research also shows that climate change, in this region specifically, has acted as a threat multiplier for conflict." Dr. Friederike Otto from Imperial College London warned that these droughts will continue to intensify until the world takes decisive action to phase out fossil fuels. She added, "If the world does not agree to phase out fossil fuels at the UN climate summit COP 28, everyone loses: More people will suffer from water shortages, more farmers will be displaced, and many people will pay more for food at supermarkets." The study, used weather data and climate models to compare how droughts have changed in the region since global heating has led to an increase in temperatures of approximately 1.2°C. This research underscores the urgent need for global climate action to mitigate the impacts of climate change on vulnerable regions.
Carbon Emissions, Not Oil and Gas, Are the Climate Challenge, Says UK's Net Zero Minister
The UK's net zero minister, Graham Stuart, recently addressed Members of Parliament, emphasizing that oil and gas themselves are "not the problem" for the climate, but the carbon emissions they generate are. This perspective suggests a potential shift in focus toward technologies for carbon capture and storage. Stuart contended that it is not fossil fuel production that drives climate change but rather the demand for fossil fuels.
Stuart's statements come amid criticism of the UK government's stance, including its plans for new oil and gas licensing in the North Sea, which has been criticized for conflicting with the country's climate goals.
Stuart asserted that the UK is a climate policy leader and emphasized that the real challenge is encouraging other nations to follow the net-zero pathway. However, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), the UK's statutory advisers, has warned that the country is not on track to meet its net-zero goals.
Stuart's remarks have raised questions about the UK's position at the upcoming COP 28 UN climate summit, where the future of oil and gas production will be scrutinized. While a group of over 80 countries, including the UK, called for the phaseout of fossil fuels at the COP 27 summit, Stuart's statements suggest a shift in emphasis toward addressing emissions rather than fossil fuels themselves.
This perspective has drawn criticism from environmental campaigners who argue that focusing on emissions is a distraction or a way to justify reliance on technology for carbon capture and storage, which is not yet widely implemented. However, amidst these challenges, there is a growing recognition of the need for collaborative efforts and innovative solutions to address climate change, offering hope that collective action and advancements in sustainable technologies will pave the way for a more resilient and environmentally conscious future.
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Images: Photograph: Lindsey Parnaby/AFP/Getty Images
Photograph: Anmar Khalil/AP
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