In our last article, we introduced the question “can renewable energy replace fossil fuels?” Unfortunately, as of right now, the answer is “no”, at least not entirely. This is mainly to do with technological limitations, which engineers are currently working on solving. Thankfully, most experts seem to agree that renewable energy does indeed have the potential to replace fossil fuels in the future, but as to when that will happen, we can’t say for sure. And even when renewables become reliable and affordable enough, the process of completely phasing out the use of fossil fuels can take anywhere between a few decades to a century. This raises another question: “what will the world be like in the future?” You may have heard the year 2050 being mentioned quite often when discussing the climate crisis, and the next few articles are going to explore why 2050 is such a critical year.
Another important thing to note is that climate change is a problem that has no end - it occurs in a loop. And, without intervention, this loop will keep repeating forever, growing bigger and bigger with each cycle. This is what is known as a positive feedback loop. For example, imagine you have your final exams coming up - here’s a typical problem that a lot of people face:
You lack motivation to study
You get distracted and decide to go on your phone
You lose track of time
You realise you have less time left to study
And repeat.
Each time you go through that cycle, you have more material to cover in less and less time. The problem keeps growing and eventually you’ll find that your exams are upon you and that you’ve run out of time to study.
Climate change follows pretty much the same concept, except on a much larger scale. And there’s a lot more at stake than just your grades. One of the biggest challenges of climate change is the fact that the problem keeps adding on to itself, making it very difficult to break the cycle. Increased fossil fuel consumption is a good example of a positive feedback loop:
Fossil fuels are burnt to produce energy
Greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere increase the rate of the greenhouse effect
Global temperatures increase, increasing the demand for electricity for air conditioning to keep cool
As you can see, the amount of fossil fuel consumption increases with every cycle, which only makes the problem worse.
So, why 2050? The year 2050 is generally considered the turning point in the climate crisis, where things will either be on track to change for the better, or the crisis will start to get out of hand. In the latter case, 2050 is the year that scientists predict the effects of climate change will become so severe that it will have a significant impact on our everyday lives. This is based on the predicted impact that increasing global temperatures will have. It is generally accepted that an increase in global temperatures by 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures (around 1850-1900) is the critical climate “tipping point”. The tipping point of a problem is basically the point in which the problem starts spiralling out of control, and it’s very difficult to reverse at this point, sometimes even impossible. Think of it like an old-fashioned balance scale - if you keep adding weight to one side, eventually the scale will tip, and there’s no way to get it to tip back the other way unless you add a counterweight. And 2050 is the year that scientists predict the planet’s “scale” will tip if we don’t take action. While 2°C might not seem like much, there could be devastating impacts if the planet reaches that level of warming. To find out what some of those impacts might be, stay tuned for Climate change 101’s next article.
Credits:
Image - Climate Atlas of Canada
Information - Usborne Climate Crisis for Beginners, Chariot Energy
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